The 82nd Academy Awards nominees came out today. Some expected nominations, and some let-downs. James Cameron's "Avatar" and ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" share being nominated for nine Oscars a piece. While I don't think Avatar deserves that many nominations, I do agree that it should be in certain categories. A few of the highlights for me are Jeff Bridges being nominated for Best Actor, "District 9" being recognized in the Special Effects category, "It's Complicated" NOT getting nominated for anything, and "Capitalism: A Love Story" NOT getting nominated for Best Documentary (although, another docuganda picture I despise, "Food, Inc.", did). My biggest disappointment this year is that "500 Days of Summer" did not get nominated for anything. Nothing. Zero. Zilch. My favorite movie of the year was completely snubbed. I can't say I'm completely shocked, but it at least deserved an Editing nod, or an Original Screenplay nom. I haven't spoken to a single person that hated the film. "The Hangover" was also snubbed, but thankfully, the Academy Awards don't include a Best Comedy category. Sam Rockwell didn't get nominated for his great performance in "Moon". Oh, and I also think they should drop Steven Martin and Alec Baldwin as hosts and let Conan O'Brien host for 2010. Along with the list of nominees below are my opinions on who I think should win and who I think will win. I reserve the right to change any of my predictions before the Oscars begin. This is my fourth time doing this and my best score so far is 15 for 24 (62.5%). Here's to hoping I can at least match that this year.
Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth in "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"
Who I want to win:
I really wish Sam Rockwell was nominated for his performance in "Moon". However, after I saw "Crazy Heart" earlier this year, I immediately determined that Jeff Bridges had the best performance of 2009. I would love to see him finally take this award.
Who I think will win:
Last year, Mickey Rourke was snubbed by Sean Penn (which I had predicted). This year, we have a similar situation in the works. You have Jeff Bridges against Colin Firth. However, Bridges' performance was so good and he's long overdue for this award (he's been nominated for an Oscar five times now), I think the Academy is going to go with him.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Matt Damon in "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
Who I want to win:
Ugh... Matt Damon? Okay, Academy, okay. I have not seen "Inglourious Basterds", so I can't comment too much on Waltz's performance. I've heard it's nothing short of amazing. I really liked Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones". He was totally creepy and awesome. I would enjoy watching him win.
Who I think will win:
Christoph Waltz is the favorite in this category, so I'll choose him.
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"
Who I want to win:
I don't like any of the nominees this year. In fact, no real female leading performances stood out to me. The closest I can think of is Zooey Deschanel for "500 Days".
Who I think will win:
I really, really, really don't want Sandra Bullock to win, but I fear it's her time. I mean, did anyone see "All About Steve"? She's actually nominated for a Razzie this year! How can a woman who is nominated for a Razzie win an Oscar!? She shouldn't, but she probably will.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Who I want to win:
I really want Anna Kendrick to win. I loved her character in "Up in the Air".
Who I think will win:
Mo'Nique is probably going to win for her performance as the scariest villain in 2009.
Best animated feature film of the year:
"Coraline" Henry Selick
"Fantastic Mr. Fox" Wes Anderson
"The Princess and the Frog" John Musker and Ron Clements
"The Secret of Kells" Tomm Moore
"Up" Pete Docter
Who I want to win:
Really happy to see five movies actually picked for this category! Usually only see three or four. "The Princess and the Frog" is kind of a surprising choice, as well as "The Secret of Kells" which I've never even heard of. This section is missing "9", in my opinion. However, I think Pixar's "Up" is by far the best out of the bunch. Such a great film.
Who I think will win:
"Up" deserves the win and it would be the biggest surprise of the night if it doesn't.
Achievement in art direction:
"Avatar" Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus" Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
"Nine" Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
"Sherlock Holmes" Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Young Victoria" Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
Who I want to win:
"Avatar".
Who I think will win:
This is sort of a tough one to figure out. You can't deny that "Avatar" has some wonderful art direction, but "The Imaginarium" has the Heath Ledger factor. The Academy has always fancied musicals like "Nine" and period pieces like "The Young Victoria". Also, this is the only category that "Sherlock Holmes" was nominated for, and since it did well in the box office (especially against "Avatar"), it could be recognized for this award. In the end, I think "The Hurt Locker" is going to receive more attention in the other categories, so maybe the Academy will go for "Avatar" this year.
Achievement in cinematography:
"Avatar" Mauro Fiore
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" Bruno Delbonnel
"The Hurt Locker" Barry Ackroyd
"Inglourious Basterds" Robert Richardson
"The White Ribbon" Christian Berger
Who I want to win:
What's "Harry Potter" doing in there? Don't get me wrong, I liked the cinematography, but not nearly as much as dozens of other films this year. So, originally I wanted "The Hurt Locker" to win this award. The cinematography is so good, you actually feel like you're on the ground with the bomb squad. But, I had yet to see "The White Ribbon". Well, now I have and I must say that the cinematography in it is superior. The black and white, dark, static camera, and simple movements make it all worth watching.
Who I think will win:
The Academy could very well pull out a wild card in this category, but I think it's safe to say that Barry Ackroyd will be recognized for this movie.
Achievement in costume design:
"Bright Star" Janet Patterson
"Coco before Chanel" Catherine Leterrier
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus" Monique Prudhomme
"Nine" Colleen Atwood
"The Young Victoria" Sandy Powell
Who I want to win:
I don't care about this category this year. I'd probably choose "The Young Victoria".
Who I think will win:
The Academy love their period films, so they'll choose "The Young Victoria".
Achievement in directing:
"Avatar" James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker" Kathryn Bigelow
"Inglourious Basterds" Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Lee Daniels
"Up in the Air" Jason Reitman
Who I want to win:
Ah, the second biggest award of the night. Kathryn Bigelow is only the fourth female director to be nominated for an Academy Award and she has a very good shot. She won Best Director at the DGA Awards and became the first woman to win. I would love to see her win an Oscar as well.
Who I think will win:
I think it'll be down to Cameron and Bigelow, and it could go either way. I'm going to go with my instincts and guess Bigelow for now.
Best documentary feature:
"Burma VJ" Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
"The Cove" Nominees to be determined
"Food, Inc." Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
"The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers" Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
"Which Way Home" Rebecca Cammisa
Who I want to win:
I'm not a fan of "documentaries" because directors can interpret their work however they want. I'll tell you what I don't want to win... "Food, Inc." Docuganda at its finest. Along the same lines of Michael Moore, Morgan Spurlock, and Penn & Teller films and shows. To trust every "fact" presented in that movie would be foolish. It's manipulative and an almost complete work of fiction. And yes, I did watch it and chose not to review it because it would just be a whole bunch of me complaining about it and "documentaries" in general. Moving on, I feel the same way about most of the other "documentaries" nominated here, except for "Burma VJ". It was shot with only pocket-sized video cameras and follows the September 2007 uprisings against the military regime in Burma that headlined newspapers everywhere. It's the closest thing to an untouched documentary.
Who I think will win:
I'm not sure. I guess I'll go with The Cove since the Academy is very pro-environmentalist, but I don't know and I couldn't care less.
Best documentary short subject:
"China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province" Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
"The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner" Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
"The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant" Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
"Music by Prudence" Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
"Rabbit à la Berlin" Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra
Who I want to win:
Interesting to see that the documentary following the assisted suicide ballot initiative in Washington State got nominated. Notice how I said "interesting" and not "surprising". "Rabbit à la Berlin" has the most intriguing plot summary to me. It's about the wild rabbits which lived between the Berlin Walls. They had the perfect environment in there. When the walls came down, they had to start learning to live for themselves just like the citizens of Eastern Germany.
Who I think will win:
No idea. Maybe the cute bunnies will warm the hearts of the Academy and they'll pick "Rabbit à la Berlin".
Achievement in film editing:
"Avatar" Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
"District 9" Julian Clarke
"The Hurt Locker" Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
"Inglourious Basterds" Sally Menke
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Joe Klotz
Who I want to win:
Besides the categories with films that I know nothing about, this is probably the hardest one for me. All of the movies are deserving of the award. Since I don't think "District 9" will be receiving too much love, I would nominate it.
Who I think will win:
I think "The Hurt Locker" will probably add to its total with this category.
Best foreign language film of the year:
"Ajami" Israel
"El Secreto de Sus Ojos" Argentina
"The Milk of Sorrow" Peru
"Un Prophète" France
"The White Ribbon" Germany
Who I want to win:
I haven't seen any of these films, except "The White Ribbon". I'd love to see it win.
Who I think will win:
"Un Prophète" seems like a close contender, but I think "The White Ribbon" has the best shot. It was also nominated for the cinematography award, and has won 13 other awards and 11 other nominations.
Achievement in makeup:
"Il Divo" Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
"Star Trek" Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
"The Young Victoria" Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
Who I want to win:
Yay for Star Trek being nominated, but this is not the category I want them to win.
Who I think will win:
Don't know how the makeup looks in "Il Divo", but "The Young Victoria" will likely win this award.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
"Avatar" James Horner
"Fantastic Mr. Fox" Alexandre Desplat
"The Hurt Locker" Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
"Sherlock Holmes" Hans Zimmer
"Up" Michael Giacchino
Who I want to win:
Michael Giacchino's score for "Up" is the most memorable of the year for me. It made me feel so many things. Sad, excited, tense, happy, and the spirit of adventure.
Who I think will win:
I see no reason why Giacchino won't win.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
"Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36" Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
"Take It All" from "Nine" Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart" Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Who I want to win:
I haven't heard "Loin de Paname" before, but I must say that "The Weary Kind" is a huge favorite of mine. Such a beautiful song. I don't even like country music. It should win.
Who I think will win:
Please, please, please don't let Randy Newman win. His music is terrible. I think the Academy will follow suit with the Golden Globes and go with "Crazy Heart".
Best motion picture of the year:
"Avatar" James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
"The Blind Side" Nominees to be determined
"District 9" Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
"An Education" Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
"The Hurt Locker" Nominees to be determined
"Inglourious Basterds" Lawrence Bender, Producer
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
"A Serious Man" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
"Up" Jonas Rivera, Producer
"Up in the Air" Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers
Who I want to win:
Even though I rated "Up" higher on my top ten of 2009 than I did for "The Hurt Locker", I would still prefer seeing "The Hurt Locker" win Best Picture. Probably because it has the best shot to beat "Avatar". I liked "Avatar" and recognize it for its superiority in the box office, but I just don't think it's the movie of the year.
Who I think will win:
So, this is the first year that the Academy is doing the whole 10 nominations in the Best Picture category thing. It's nice because all of these movies deserve to be recognized in some form. None of them received rotten ratings from Rotten Tomatoes. There are a few that I would have switched out. For example, swap "The Blind Side" with "500 Days of Summer". Having 10 nominations could affect who comes out on top. Maybe people will go, "'The Hurt Locker' was my favorite movie, but since it'll probably receive a lot of votes anyway, I'll put my vote in for 'Up'." That's not my prediction though. I do think this is "The Hurt Locker"'s year. The Academy will either go for the record-breaking blockbuster, or the critically-praised art film. My prediction is based on the fact that only 6 times in 60 years has the DGA winner NOT won the Oscar for Best Picture, and I think the AMPAS is slightly smarter than the HFPA.
Best animated short film:
"French Roast" Fabrice O. Joubert
"Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty" Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
"The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)" Javier Recio Gracia
"Logorama" Nicolas Schmerkin
"A Matter of Loaf and Death" Nick Park
Who I want to win:
Thanks to /Film, this is a category I know a lot more about this year. Out of all the animated shorts I watched, I enjoyed "The Cat Piano" the most (you can watch it for free here). Great writing, narrative, shades of colors, and film noir. Shame it wasn't nominated. I'm a big fan of Wallace and Gromit, but "A Matter of Loaf and Death" just wasn't the same as the old shorts. It wasn't even as good as the movie. That being said, I don't think I want any of these to win. "The Cat Piano" blew all of these out of the water.
Who I think will win:
I think the Academy has a soft spot for Wallace and Gromit, so they'll probably choose that.
Best live action short film:
"The Door" Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
"Instead of Abracadabra" Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
"Kavi" Gregg Helvey
"Miracle Fish" Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
"The New Tenants" Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson
Who I want to win:
I don't know a single thing about this category.
Who I think will win:
No idea. "Miracle Fish" because Brian would like the title.
Achievement in sound editing:
"Avatar" Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
"The Hurt Locker" Paul N.J. Ottosson
"Inglourious Basterds" Wylie Stateman
"Star Trek" Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
"Up" Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
Who I want to win:
I loved the sound design in "Star Trek".
Who I think will win:
I'm really hoping "Star Trek" takes this one. It will probably be "Avatar", but I'm predicting "Trek".
Achievement in sound mixing:
"Avatar" Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
"The Hurt Locker" Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
"Inglourious Basterds" Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
"Star Trek" Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
Who I want to win:
Believe it or not, I want "Transformers" to win this category. The movie is so bad, but the sound mixing is fantastic.
Who I think will win:
I always get the sound design categories wrong, but I'm not changing my strategy. I think "The Hurt Locker" is going to win it here.
Achievement in visual effects:
"Avatar" Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
"District 9" Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
"Star Trek" Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
Who I want to win:
"Avatar". No question. Deserves it 100%. Cool to see "District 9" on the list, and the movie did have good effects for such a small budget, but doesn't compare to the other two.
Who I think will win:
"Avatar" will win.
Adapted screenplay:
"District 9" Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
"An Education" Screenplay by Nick Hornby
"In the Loop" Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
"Up in the Air" Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Who I want to win:
I want "District 9" to win because it has such a captivating story.
Who I think will win:
I think Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" will take this award since it won't really win anything else.
Original screenplay:
"The Hurt Locker" Written by Mark Boal
"Inglourious Basterds" Written by Quentin Tarantino
"The Messenger" Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"A Serious Man" Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Up" Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Who I want to win:
I'd like to see "The Hurt Locker" win this category. Great original story written in a pretty fair way.
Who I think will win:
If Tarantino is going to win any award, I think it will be this one.
My reviews for movies that are nominated this year:
Up
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
District 9
Avatar
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Crazy Heart
The Princess and the Frog
Sherlock Holmes
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Coraline
The Lovely Bones
Once again, this list can change at any time between now and the big show, but once the show starts, these predictions stick. See you March 7th for ONL 4.
Past ONLs:
ONL 1
ONL 2
ONL 3